And according to Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projections (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) the Rays will win the AL East, the Red Sox will win the Wild Card and the Yankees will finish 3rd in the AL East.
But don’t call your bookie yet.
While Baseball Prospectus was fairly accurate in their 2009 AL East and AL West predictions, they were dead wrong with their AL Central predictions.
Keep in mind that in 2009, the AL East and AL West were EASY predictions to make. Any monkey with a keyboard could have predicted those final standings accurately. So I cant give them kudos for those predictions.
The AL Central was the division that was really difficult to predict. And Baseball Prospectus got it wrong.
Just more proof that sabermetrics, UZR and other nerdy baseball terms are no more accurate than the eye ball test.
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